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Skill prediction of local weather forecasts based on the ECMWF ensemble
Skill prediction local weather forecasts ECMWF ensemble
2009/11/12
Ensemble Prediction has become an essential part of numerical weather forecasting. In this paper we investigate the ability of ensemble forecasts to provide an a priori estimate of the expected foreca...
Verification of intense precipitation forecasts from single models and ensemble prediction systems
intense precipitation forecasts single models ensemble prediction systems
2009/11/12
The performance of single models and ensemble prediction systems has been investigated with respect to quantitative precipitation forecasts. Evaluation is based on the potential economic value of + 72...
Performance of the ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system:two flood cases
ARPA-SMR limited-area ensemble prediction system flood cases
2009/11/12
The performance of the ARPA-SMR Limited-area Ensemble Prediction System (LEPS), generated by nesting a limited-area model on selected members of the ECMWF targeted ensemble, is evaluated for two flood...
Testing the performance of three nonlinear methods of time seriesanalysis for prediction and downscaling of European daily temperatures
nonlinear methods time seriesanalysis European daily temperatures
2009/11/11
We investigated the usability of the method of local linear models (LLM), multilayer perceptron neural network (MLP NN) and radial basis function neural network (RBF NN) for the construction of tempor...
Prediction of minimum temperatures in an alpine region by linear and non-linear post-processing of meteorological models
minimum temperatures alpine region linear and non-linear post-processing meteorological models
2009/11/3
Model Output Statistics (MOS) refers to a method of post-processing the direct outputs of numerical weather prediction (NWP) models in order to reduce the biases introduced by a coarse horizontal reso...